I just read something interesting from the Bloomberg team about why we shouldn't obsess over every price movement we see in Bitcoin and gold.

Basically, Eric Balchunas ( ETF analyst ) is saying that these short-term fluctuations are not an indicator that these assets have lost their role as safe havens. Look, after the Iranian airstrikes and all the geopolitical tension that followed, Bitcoin went up about 12% while gold fell. Seems contradictory, right?

But here’s the key point I found crucial: these fluctuations are probably more related to market makers doing their job, changes in sentiment, and short-term speculative moves, rather than a fundamental change in the nature of these assets as refuges.

Balchunas mentions that the fall in gold could simply be profit-taking or investors reallocating capital to Bitcoin. That is, it’s not that gold has stopped being a safe haven, but that there’s a portfolio rebalancing happening. The fluctuations we see can be misleading if we only look at the 1-day chart.

What resonated most with me was his warning: don’t draw conclusions about what these assets really are based solely on volatile short-term movements. We need to see the bigger picture, the actual market dynamics, not just react to each spike or dip.

It’s a useful reminder in these times when every geopolitical news piece triggers instant volatility. Sometimes, the fluctuation is noise, not signal.