Last night after work, I was scrolling through on-chain activity, and I happened to take a look at the data before and after the upgrade of that mainstream public chain. Everyone in the group was guessing, “Will it migrate?” and the mood ran even ahead of the trading volume. Anyway, while I was watching the capital flows and keeping an eye on the options market, I found that many people are actually using options to express anxiety: they’re afraid of black swan events, and they’re also afraid of missing out—so they end up buying more and more impulsively, getting more and more overheated.

To put it simply, buyers are buying “a chance to explode even if time isn’t on my side”—with time value being chipped away from them every day. Sellers are selling the patience of “as long as nothing big happens, I’ll slowly collect rent”—with time value feeding them. But once real volatility hits, they might end up swallowing back everything they ate up earlier in one bite. These days I’m more inclined to use small positions as the buyer: I’m clear that any loss is just the option premium, and my mindset stays steadier. As for that kind of seemingly comfortable curve on the seller’s side, I admit I can’t stomach tail risk—so forget it.