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I recently noticed on Polymarket that the probability of Trump not having to pay back the tariffs is priced at 82%, meaning the market considers a high likelihood that there will be no repayment order before July 2026.
The story behind this is that the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20th with a 6-3 decision that Trump's trade tariffs violate the law under IEEPA. However, Trump still opposes this decision and says there will be alternative solutions. The Federal Court of Appeals also upheld this ruling.
Interestingly, the market currently only prices about a 19% chance that a court will order repayment before the end of 2026. It seems traders are not very optimistic about the possibility of enforcement of repayment.