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I noticed that next week is expected to have a fairly packed schedule of economic events that could significantly affect market behavior. Everything revolves around a few key points, and honestly, this will be an interesting week for traders.
On Thursday, they will publish the minutes of the January Federal Reserve meeting—which is arguably the most anticipated event. The minutes usually make clear how the central bank views the path of rate cuts this year. Many watch this specifically to understand whether there will be more cuts or not.
But the main action will take place on Friday. Several important figures will be released at once there: preliminary U.S. GDP data for the fourth quarter and the Personal Consumption Expenditures core inflation index—PCE. The Fed considers this index its key inflation gauge, and if it turns out to be higher than expectations, it could seriously slow the pace of monetary policy easing. The market reacts very sensitively to this.
At the same time, we’re keeping an eye on the actions of other central banks. The Reserve Bank of Australia may address inflation risks, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, it seems, will keep rates unchanged. Plus, there are a few more speeches by Fed representatives—together, all of this creates a backdrop for volatility.
Don’t forget about geopolitics. The Supreme Court’s decision on Trump’s tariff policy could provide a serious boost to global trade. This is also something to keep in mind when planning positions.
In the corporate sector, the earnings reporting season is wrapping up—Walmart will present results for the fourth final quarter. Overall, the week promises to be tense. It’s better to be ready for moves.