Lately, I’ve been concerned about the rapid escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran. It’s not just political posturing; the geopolitical risks that directly impact the markets are increasing.

According to analysts, if Iran takes strategic actions, key oil transportation routes like the Strait of Hormuz could become targets. Indirect attacks through proxy forces are also possible. If such developments materialize, the ripple effects on the global economy, including energy markets, could be significant.

Adding to that, next week will feature a rush of important U.S. economic indicators. On Monday, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released simultaneously. Since manufacturing PMI serves as a leading indicator of economic health, market reactions are expected to be sensitive.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, speeches by Federal Reserve officials are scheduled, which might provide clues about the future direction of monetary policy. On Thursday, the Beige Book will be published. And heading into the weekend, employment and consumption data—including the ADP employment report, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and retail sales—will be released one after another.

Of particular interest is the level of the manufacturing PMI figures. If signs of economic slowdown become clear, risk assets are likely to be sold off. Conversely, heightened geopolitical risks could trigger a flight to safe assets. Since both pressures could act simultaneously, the market may become quite volatile.

During such times, it’s essential to monitor both economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Next week’s movements could be crucial in shaping future market trends.