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I just got the itch again and wanted to chase a move, and the first thing that came to mind wasn't "How much can it rise," but "Did I get new information, or am I just being pushed by emotions to add to my position." Honestly, many times it's just a phrase in the group chat saying "It's about to take off" + a single bullish candlestick, and I start looking for reasons to justify myself.
Recently, the incentives on the testnet and the expectations around token rewards have been quite heated, and guesses like "Will the mainnet issue tokens" are the easiest to get people excited. Anyway, my current approach is: first, set aside the position size, and check my wallet permissions—see if anyone still has unlimited authorization, and revoke it first; then ask myself, do I really have certain information, or am I just afraid of missing out.
If the answer is "I'm just anxious," then don't pretend to be a researcher... As for how you can tell which one you are?