Account with 81% win rate purchased for $40k; Trump will continue to block the Strait of Hormuz before April 30.

The Coin World news reports that in the Polymarket prediction event “Trump will continue to block the Strait of Hormuz before April 30,” an account with an 81% win rate (@Pajamapants) bought a $40,000 bet that Trump will not stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz before April 30, with an opening position average price of 68.5¢. The specific rule is: if President Trump, the U.S. government, or the military publicly and officially announces an end to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will turn to “Yes.” Otherwise, the market will ultimately determine “No.”

A limited statement must explicitly and clearly state that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on the specified date, or use equally explicit language indicating that the blockade has stopped or will stop on the specified date (for example, a statement explicitly indicating that U.S. Navy activity in the relevant area has ceased satisfies the condition). Statements that only describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (such as “Iran resumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz”) without clearly indicating that the blockade has been lifted are not sufficient. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaked information do not meet the criteria.

A written public statement by Donald Trump (such as a post on his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos he posts on social media will also satisfy the “for” condition. The primary source for resolving this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or its official representatives; however, credible consensus reports may also be used.

Note: This market will be decided only based on whether a qualified announcement is issued within the specified time. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced, or whether maritime traffic resumes, will not be considered unless there is an unconditional announcement.