Lately I've been looking at options again, and the more I watch, the more I realize that time value is essentially eating away at the buyer's patience. The buyer has to bet on direction plus time; even if the market stays still, it can wear you down. The seller is more like collecting rent, earning from the "unoccurred" period, but once something actually happens, they have to endure tail risk, and sleep isn't peaceful.

These days, everyone talks about rate cut expectations, the US dollar index, and risk assets rising and falling together. Listening to it, I think... hmm, macro logic can change every day, and if you take it as an entry trigger, you’re easily swung back and forth. Anyway, I now prefer to think of options as "buying insurance/selling insurance": buyers take small positions as cost, sellers strictly limit exposure + hedge, or sooner or later, you'll end up losing all the small gains you've made earlier.

I no longer believe in the one-liner summary that "sellers are guaranteed to win steadily, buyers are just giving away money." The market is notorious for shaking self-confidence, so let's start with that.