I noticed an interesting opinion from AllianceDAO co-founder KuCiao about what drives Bitcoin's price in a bear market. He says it's not external factors like Jane Street or Quantum, but primarily technical analysis and market psychology.

There is logic in this. Bitcoin isn't tied to cash flows or fundamental indicators like stocks. It lives in the minds of traders and investors. Therefore, during a bear market, people focus on charts, support and resistance levels, rather than news.

KuCiao notes that belief in the four-year cycle is stronger than in the five-year cycle. And when the trend breaks, a wave of profit-taking and stop-loss triggers begins. Most other explanations we see in the news are just correlations, not causes.

Now, when the bear market keeps everyone on edge, patience is needed. KuCiao believes that psychological capitulation may have already happened. The reversal could occur without any specific event. Just when everyone is broken, recovery begins.

This reminds us that in a bear market, it's important to focus on psychology and technicals, not wait for some magical catalyst.