#Gate13周年现场直击 What recent news events have influenced the movement of gold and crude oil? How should the future bullish or bearish trends be analyzed?

#Gate13周年现场直击 What recent news events have influenced the movement of gold and crude oil? How should the future outlook for gold be analyzed in terms of bullish and bearish trends?

On Wednesday (April 22), during the Asia-Europe session, gold showed a rebound trend, after plunging up to 3% during Tuesday’s New York session. Following the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, the US dollar remained under pressure, and gold refreshed its intraday high, starting its rebound from the support level of $4705. President Trump announced the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday without specifying the duration, attempting to create conditions for peace negotiations. However, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that Iran did not request an extension and threatened to break the blockade by force. The US still maintains a blockade on Iranian ships, and the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. The dollar’s decline was notably limited, and the rise in gold prices was also restrained, so gold bulls need to stay vigilant.

On Wednesday, the US did not release any major economic data, and the movement of the dollar and gold was mainly driven by geopolitical news, leading to increased market volatility. Meanwhile, US retail sales data performed strongly, with economists raising their Q1 economic growth forecasts, highlighting the resilience of the US economy. This directly suppressed the bearish momentum of the dollar. During this hearing, Waller fully disclosed the Federal Reserve’s reform blueprint, proposing a series of aggressive measures aimed at addressing current Fed operational pain points, which will profoundly impact gold trading logic. Market speculation suggests that the Fed might reduce bond purchases, cease reinvestments at maturity, encourage banks to buy government bonds, and reform to shrink its balance sheet, while also reforming to reduce its influence on the market. He explicitly proposed canceling the regular press conferences that became routine after the financial crisis, to completely reconstruct the Fed’s communication channels with the market; he also plans to abandon forward guidance, believing this tool cannot stabilize market expectations and instead constrains the Fed’s decision-making flexibility. More disruptively, Waller publicly dismissed the core PCE inflation index used by the Fed for years, calling it a rough guess of price trends, and decided to abandon this key monetary policy reference, breaking the long-standing policy analysis framework of the Fed. Some market skeptics viewed Waller’s reforms as merely political showmanship to appease Trump, but his series of measures are fundamentally aimed at implementing a policy mix of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction to lower long-term interest rates and ease the mortgage, credit card, and other consumer debt pressures on Americans. Waller stated plainly that the Fed’s long-term policy mistakes led to runaway inflation after the pandemic, causing it to lose credibility in the market. Only by fundamentally reshaping its operational model can it rebuild trust and achieve rate cuts. For gold trading, rate cut expectations are theoretically bullish for interest-free gold, but simultaneous balance sheet reduction will withdraw liquidity from the market and push up real interest rates, which will exert significant downward pressure on gold prices.

4.22 Gold Market Analysis
Technical analysis: Gold showed a slight rebound intraday. Currently, on the daily chart, the short-term moving averages are mostly flat and close together, indicating continued consolidation within a broad range in the short term. Although Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire with Iran, the timing of the second round of negotiations has not yet been decided, adding uncertainty to the short-term trend. The situation remains highly uncertain, and gold may continue its weak trend in the near term, with further declines possible on rebounds. On the 4-hour chart, the current price is temporarily under pressure around 4770-80, and short-term prices may be compressed between 4780 and 4670. On the hourly chart, after a series of narrow oscillations, technical patterns are beginning to weaken; the short-term moving averages are shifting from divergence upward to flattening, suggesting some adjustment space in the short term, so watch for short-term correction and recovery. On the 30-minute chart, gold continues to weaken in the short term. Resistance above is around 4780, where short positions can be taken, and support is around 4650. If the situation does not significantly ease, gold may further decline. Overall, for today’s short-term trading, Jinchengfu suggests mainly shorting on rebounds and buying on dips, with a focus on resistance at 4770-4780 and support at 4650-4670. Manage positions and stop-loss strictly; do not fight the trend.

Gold Trading Strategy Reference
Short Position Strategy:
Strategy 1: Short on gold rebounds around 4765-4775 in batches (buy dips), with 2/10 position size, stop loss at 4790, target around 4700-4650, and if broken, look toward 4600.

Long Position Strategy:
Strategy 2: Buy on dips around 4600-4610 in batches (buy rises), with 2/10 position size, stop loss at 4580, target around 4650-4680, and if broken, look toward 4700.

These are for reference only and not investment advice!