Prediction markets on April 23 put Trump's impeachment probability before Jan 2028 at 68%, up from ~30% last November, signaling intensifying market expectations despite uncertainty about the final outcome.This note reports that on April 23, prediction markets priced the likelihood of Trump's impeachment before January 2028 at 68%, up from about 30% in the prior November, indicating rising market expectations of political trouble for Trump even as the final result remains uncertain.

AirdropBlackHole

2026-04-22 17:15:06

Abstract generation in progress

On April 23, prediction markets indicated that the probability of Trump being impeached before January 2028 is 68%, a significant increase from approximately 30% last November. This shift suggests that market expectations regarding Trump’s potential political troubles are intensifying, although the final outcome remains uncertain.

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Prediction Markets Show Rising Impeachment Risk for Trump

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