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I just checked Polymarket and was struck by the fact that JD Vance is leading the odds for the 2028 presidential election with a 21% chance. It's interesting to see how these prediction markets capture market sentiment so clearly.
What surprises me is how much speculation there is around candidates who are still far from officially competing. The odds on Polymarket move quite quickly based on news and political developments, so these numbers could change significantly in the coming months.
Compared to other potential candidates in early betting, Vance is quite ahead. These markets are an interesting reflection of where people believe politics is headed, although obviously the odds don't always align with the final outcomes. Definitely something to keep an eye on in the coming years.