I noticed an interesting point in the American economy — import prices in March jumped 2.1% year-over-year. This is the biggest increase since December of last year, according to the data. Monthly, prices rose by 0.8%, which is also significant.

This seems to reflect the fact that the Chicago index and other economic indicators have long been signaling — inflationary pressure on imported goods is not easing. Interestingly, the Chicago index shows a similar trend in the regional economy. It appears this is not just a local phenomenon.

Overall, when looking at the Chicago index in the context of these import prices, it becomes clear that the pressure on the cost of goods is coming not only from external markets. The Chicago index confirms that business activity within the U.S. is also increasing, which could boost demand. It creates a vicious cycle — import prices are rising, the Chicago index shows activity, and inflation is not ready to give up its position.