Huatai Futures: Trump Threatens to Bomb Iran's Energy Facilities, Increasing the Risk of Oil Price Surge

Yesterday, Trump delivered a speech but did not fulfill the market’s previous expectations of troop withdrawal (TACO), and instead further threatened to bomb Iran’s power plants and energy facilities. Oil prices surged again, with no signs of easing in the short-term conflict. If more energy infrastructure is affected in the future, there will be greater upside risk for oil prices. Additionally, since late March, the global crude oil spot premium has soared significantly, with Dated Brent breaking through $140 per barrel yesterday. This indicates that Asian buyers are filling the gap in the Middle East through global purchases, causing spillover effects. The crude oil market is facing a double surge in both absolute prices and discounts, while refined products like European jet fuel and diesel are performing even more strongly, already surpassing $200 per barrel. The market has exhausted its policy tools to address the gap, and only opening the Strait of Hormuz can alleviate the situation in the future. Otherwise, prices will continue to rise, potentially damaging demand. (Huatai Futures)