U.S.-Iran Situation and Federal Reserve Movements

1. U.S.-Iran Situation: Ceasefire Extended, Neither Side Wants to Fight
Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, citing the need for internal Iran to unify its plans. The actual meaning is: as long as Iran doesn't propose a plan, the ceasefire remains in place. Iran also hinted that lifting the maritime blockade might be a prerequisite for negotiations.
Key points:
Both sides don't want to fight, but won't easily make concessions.
Iran's "denuclearization" is basically settled; the real game is the survival of proxies like Hezbollah — this is the foundation of Iran's influence in the Middle East.
Future localized skirmishes may still occur, but the probability of large-scale military action like in March is decreasing.
Interestingly: global stock markets are starting to "desensitize" to this issue, Brent crude is nearly $99, and stocks should rise. The market cares more about avoiding casualties and shipping disruptions; how they get there doesn't matter.

2. Fed Nominee Waller "Turns Hawkish," Surprising the Market
Waller explicitly stated at the hearing:
The Federal Reserve must maintain independence, not be a tool of the president.
He did not promise rate cuts and even hinted that rate hikes might be needed to control inflation.
Market interpretation leans hawkish:
Gold and silver futures plummeted (gold down nearly 2%, silver down over 4%)
U.S. stocks tumbled at the close, with precious metals and crypto-related stocks leading the decline.
The Middle East isn't escalating into war, but negotiations are deadlocked, dragging on long-term.
The Fed's stance is tightening, rate cut expectations are cooling, and the market is readjusting. Gold faces short-term pressure.
Watch for developments: Will Iran come up with a plan? Will Waller ultimately get the position? $BTC