Pre-Fire Ceasefire 'Divine Prediction'? $430 Million Bet on Oil Price Drop Raises Insider Trading Concerns

On April 22, just 15 minutes before U.S. President Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, the market saw a massive $430 million short bet on crude oil, raising strong suspicions of potential insider trading. Data shows that this marks the third occurrence this month and the fourth since the outbreak of conflict where significant trades have been made just before major announcements regarding the Middle East situation: On March 23, 15 minutes before Trump announced the postponement of strikes on Iranian power facilities, approximately $500 million was bet on a decline in oil prices; on April 7, hours before the ceasefire agreement was announced, $950 million in short positions were established in advance; on April 17, about 20 minutes before Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, $760 million was bet on a drop in oil prices; the total scale of similar trades in April has reached approximately $2.1 billion. The repeated occurrence of ‘precise trades before events’ has led the market to focus on the risks of information leaks and regulatory arbitrage. Analysts point out that in the context of heightened geopolitical sensitivity, such trading behavior, if involving the flow of undisclosed information, could severely impact market fairness.