I noticed an interesting movement in the market — Bitcoin broke through the 78,000 mark, but the volatility in options is behaving strangely. It would seem that as the price rises, fears should also increase, but no. Quite the opposite — risk premiums are falling, even for contracts that are about to expire. This looks like a classic market disappointment in black swan scenarios.

What's happening here? Realized volatility has, of course, increased, but implied volatility stubbornly decreases. Yesterday, it seemed that risk compensation would recover, but it retreated again. The skew also changed — the negative shift decreased amid the price increase. It’s as if the market is saying: okay, the black swan is unlikely, we’re going higher.

It turns out that breaking through the 70,000 mark removes fears rather than confirming that a steady rise is ahead. An honestly contradictory signal. Traders clearly don’t believe volatility will stay low, but they’re not expecting a black swan either.