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Before the ceasefire, "God-level prediction"? $430 million precise bet on falling oil prices, insider trading suspicion arises again
BlockBeats News, on April 22, U.S. President Trump announced an extension of the Iran ceasefire agreement just 15 minutes prior, causing the market to see up to $430 million in crude oil short bets, sparking strong suspicion of potential insider trading.
Data shows this is the third time this month and the fourth time since the outbreak of conflict that “precise timing” large trades have occurred before major Middle East developments are announced:
On March 23, 15 minutes before Trump announced delaying strikes on Iran’s power facilities, about $500 million was bet on falling oil prices;
On April 7, a few hours before the ceasefire agreement was announced, a $950 million short position was established in advance;
On April 17, about 20 minutes before Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, $760 million was bet on falling oil prices;
The total scale of similar trades in April has reached approximately $2.1 billion. Multiple instances of “precise pre-event trading” have raised concerns about information leaks and regulatory arbitrage risks. Analysts point out that in the context of highly sensitive geopolitical situations, if such trading involves undisclosed information flow, it could seriously impact market fairness.