What’s happening in the United States right now is truly crazy. The US government shutdown has just crossed the two-month mark, and it has become a real nightmare for air travel. Over 100,000 Department of Homeland Security employees are unpaid, while the TSA is losing nearly 11% of its staff. The result? Airports are paralyzed, delays are piling up, and passengers in New Orleans are paying the highest price.

The interesting thing is how the market is reacting. Polymarket has launched predictive markets where traders can bet on the duration of the delays and on when this US shutdown will finally end. Currently, the odds indicate a 44% chance that everything will be resolved between early and mid-April, but there’s also a 14% probability that it will drag on throughout the month. Clearly, no one really knows when it will end.

Elon Musk even proposed to pay TSA salaries out of his own pocket, but the White House refused for legal reasons and conflicts of interest. Meanwhile, authorities have deployed ICE agents at airports to compensate, but it hasn’t changed the delays. The US shutdown has now surpassed the previous record of 35 days set during Trump’s term, and honestly, the economic and political impact is becoming increasingly critical. It’s a real test for the American administration.