Fitch Ratings Huang Xiaoting: The upward trend of the international oil price center is clear, but domestic price transmission is relatively moderate

On April 21st, at the “2026 Fitch Views China” event site, Fitch Ratings Asia-Pacific Corporate Ratings Senior Director Huang Xiaoting stated that as geopolitical conflicts persist, the upward trend of international oil prices has become a relatively certain trend. Under the regulation of refined oil price management mechanisms, the transmission speed and magnitude of international oil prices to domestic consumers are generally moderate, which can buffer the impact on residents’ purchasing power. In comparison, industrial price transmission is more market-oriented; in the context of weak terminal demand, mid- and downstream enterprises may find it difficult to fully pass on additional costs, putting pressure on their profitability. Fitch Ratings conducted scenario analysis on oil price trends during the early stages of the conflict: if the conflict eases relatively quickly, oil prices in 2026 are expected to remain around $70 per barrel; if the Strait of Hormuz experiences a phased blockade lasting about three months, the average annual price could rise to around $100 per barrel; in an extreme scenario where the blockade lasts more than six months, oil prices could climb to $130–$170 per barrel, bringing the annual average close to $120 per barrel. Although the probability of extreme scenarios is relatively low, energy prices are unlikely to return to previous low levels in the short term. (People’s Financial News)