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when does the bear market end?
bear market doesn't end when price hits some disgusting low level, likely with a liquidation wick as well
bear market ends when the asset starts showing infant stages of pricing in future conditions and narratives
study BTC 18 month long compression from last bear that went from initial capitulation to depression to black swan to apathy to recovery
the recovery is the market pricing in the future - it's telling you that it knows something and you should listen to it ASAP
that is, objectively speaking, the safest and best time to buy an asset
black swans [FTX in this case] are excluded from generalized examples for obvious reasons, but included here as we're taking last bear as reference
for me, the idea of buying $20k Bitcoin in September 2022 was safer and smarter than buying Luna collapse at $17k in June 2022. for me, $20k is cheaper than $17k from risk premia standpoint.
for me, buying $19k Bitcoin in January 2023 on the recovery was safer and smarter than buying FTX collapse at $15.5k. for me, $19k is cheaper than $15.5k from risk premia standpoint.
it's really that simple. you just have to pull the trigger and pull it fast when asset screams
Godspeed.