QCP: BTC's rebound is more due to risk mitigation, and the market remains in a consolidation range

Odaily Planet Daily reported that QCP released a market analysis stating that BTC rebounded from around $75,000 to $78,000 after a low point, but this rally was mainly driven by risk easing rather than fundamental improvements.

It pointed out that the extension of the Iran ceasefire reduced short-term geopolitical risks, while Federal Reserve officials’ statements maintaining a data-dependent stance did not signal any clear easing. Futures positions have increased, and funding rates remain negative, indicating new short positions entering the market. The current market more reflects volatility under the expectation of short squeeze. Regarding the options market, short-term volatility is about 40%, with skew still leaning towards downside protection, and the term structure is relatively flat, overall indicating a sideways pattern.

QCP believes that the future market trend still depends on crude oil prices and monetary policy signals. In the absence of clear catalysts, the market may maintain range-bound fluctuations.