Assessing Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Valuation As Mixed Share Price Returns Meet Bullish Fair Value Models

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 18, 2026 at 6:15 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) has been drawing attention after recent share price swings, with the stock showing mixed returns over the past month and past 3 months while longer term performance remains positive.

See our latest analysis for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.

At a share price of $332.61, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals has seen short term share price pressure, with a 30 day share price return decline of 7.42% and a 90 day share price return decline of 25.39%, even as its 1 year total shareholder return of 32.77% and 3 year total shareholder return of 65.40% point to stronger longer term momentum.

If you are interested in how other biotech names are trading around growth and risk shifts, it may be worth scanning 25 healthcare AI stocks as a starting list of ideas.

With Alnylam trading at $332.61 alongside an indicated intrinsic discount of 47.57%, the key question for investors is whether this gap represents a genuine entry point or if the market already reflects future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 32.4% Undervalued

At a last close of $332.61 versus a narrative fair value of about $491.92, the current price sits well below what this widely followed model sees as reasonable, setting up a clear tension between market trading levels and long range expectations.

Advancements in Alnylam’s pipeline (e.g., fast tracked nucresiran for ATTR CM, mivelsiran in Alzheimer’s, new programs in diabetes and bleeding disorders) demonstrate increasing R&D efficiency and accelerate time to market, potentially driving future step function increases in both revenue and operational leverage as more assets advance or launch.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue climb and margin shift would need to line up for that fair value to make sense? The narrative leans on rapid top line expansion, a sharp earnings swing, and a punchy future profit multiple that is well above typical biotech benchmarks. Want to see exactly how those ingredients are combined and what assumptions sit underneath them? Read through the full story behind this valuation before you decide how you feel about the gap.

Result: Fair Value of $491.92 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh the risk that heavy reliance on the TTR franchise and potential pricing or reimbursement pressure could undercut the assumptions behind that upbeat fair value story.

Find out about the key risks to this Alnylam Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Story continues  

Another Take: Rich Earnings Multiple vs Cash Flow Upside

So far, the narrative fair value and analyst targets point to Alnylam looking cheap against long term growth assumptions. Yet on earnings, the picture is very different, with the stock trading on a P/E of 140.6x versus a fair ratio of 33.7x and a US biotech average of 22.2x.

That kind of gap suggests investors are paying a steep premium today, even though our DCF model flags Alnylam at $634.42 per share, well above the current $332.61. This mix of a rich earnings multiple and discounted cash flow may be viewed as either upside potential or execution risk if expectations reset.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NasdaqGS:ALNY P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly split between rich valuation signals and potential upside, it makes sense to move quickly, test the assumptions yourself, and weigh both sides of the story by reviewing 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include ALNY.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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