You probably noticed this week that major financial institutions are sounding the alarm about a possible US recession. It has become a hot topic in trading rooms.

I just saw the figures released by Moody's Analytics: a 48.6% chance of recession in the United States within the next 12 months. Honestly, that's serious. And it's not just Moody's crying wolf. EY-Parthenon talks about 40%, JPMorgan Chase about 35%, and even Goldman Sachs, usually more optimistic, estimates 30%. All these big players are pointing in the same direction.

What really stands out is how quickly this alert level has risen. Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, noted that it was at 15% just a few months ago. Now, we've nearly tripled the US recession estimates in a short period.

The cause? Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a spectacular spike in oil prices. Brent has gone from $70 to over $100 per barrel since late February. Can you imagine the impact on the global economy when energy suddenly becomes much more expensive?

Historically, JPMorgan has shown that these violent oil shocks often precede recessions. It’s a pattern that repeats itself. That’s why everyone is now asking the question.

Larry Fink of BlackRock summarized the two possible scenarios: either we quickly resolve the crisis and oil prices fall, allowing the economy to restart; or the conflict drags on, prices stay high, and then we really enter US recession territory. It’s the uncertainty that makes all this difficult to predict.