I noticed an interesting trend in the macro scene. Over the past year, forecasts from major financial players regarding a recession in the U.S. have become much gloomier. Previously, they spoke of a 15% probability, but now four major institutions independently estimate the risk of a recession in the U.S. within the next year at 30-48%. Moody's Analytics even reached 48.6% — this is a serious signal. Following them are EY-Parthenon (40%), JPMorgan (35%), and Goldman Sachs (30%). The consensus is clear.

What happened? The main reason is the oil crisis. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp jump in Brent crude oil prices from $70 to over $100 per barrel. This significantly impacts energy supply chains worldwide. JPMorgan notes that historically, such oil shocks often preceded economic downturns.

Interestingly, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi emphasized the speed of this increase in forecasts — literally over a few months, the probability of a recession in the U.S. rose from 15% to nearly 50%. This is not a gradual change but a real shift in risk assessment.

Larry Fink from BlackRock sees two scenarios: either the conflict resolves quickly, prices fall, and the economy returns to normal, or tensions persist, oil remains expensive, and pressure on the economy grows. The second scenario means that a recession in the U.S. could become a reality, not just a statistical probability. The macro picture is becoming increasingly tense.