I just noticed an interesting detail about this week's economic data release schedule. The U.S. non-farm payroll report for October and November has been postponed to December 16th due to the government shutdown, creating a strange gap between the Fed's last policy meeting of the year and the data release. Six days is enough time for the Fed to make a decision without having to wait for this non-farm payroll report.

The interesting part is that the labor market report will no longer have a direct impact on the Fed's December decision. Instead, previous guidance and other economic data will become more influential factors. Currently, the market is pricing in a 92% probability of a rate cut in December, reflecting high expectations for a Fed move.

But this is where things get complicated. The Fed's statements about economic prospects for 2025 are creating significant risks for the U.S. dollar and short-term yields. With the non-farm payroll report no longer being a direct influencing factor, analysts and traders need to pay closer attention to alternative indicators.

Another noteworthy point is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports an 80.2% survey response rate, suggesting that the final non-farm payroll figures could contain substantial revisions compared to initial estimates.

By the way, I recommend everyone closely monitor alternative economic indicators and Fed statements in the coming days. The market will be very sensitive to any signals from the Fed, as this upcoming non-farm payroll report will no longer be the main driver.