Recently, I've been looking at address profiling/tag clustering, and the more I look, the more I feel: it can be used, but don't trust it too much. Many "smart money" actually just hover around exchange hot wallets, or one person splits into dozens of addresses, and when clustering merges them, it looks like an institution... Conversely, multi-signature + custody mixed together can also make several groups of people appear as one. To put it simply, on-chain images are like geometric outlines; they can show structure and dependencies, but don't treat them as IDs.

These days, everyone is also anxious about staking unlocks and token unlock calendars causing selling pressure. I also watch where the funds move to, but I care more about: where do they go after unlocking? Into CEX or into lending/market-making pools? The path is different, and so is the sentiment.

For safety, I am willing to take an extra step: before large transfers, first use small "scouting" transfers, then add address whitelists + hardware signatures. It’s a bit troublesome, but it reduces the chance of mistakes like sending to the wrong chain or wrong address. It’s worth it.