An interesting perspective on the Bitcoin situation was offered by Arthur Hayes in his recent analysis. He draws attention to a scenario that many overlook — deflation caused by the development of artificial intelligence, and how this could overturn the entire macroeconomic landscape.

The essence of his argument is simple but convincing. If such deflation truly begins, central banks will not sit idly by. They will print money to save the banking system from collapse, and economists will find plenty of excuses for these actions. Plus, if the administration pursues aggressive fiscal policies with huge budgets, the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut rates and inject liquidity into the system.

What’s truly interesting is that Arthur Hayes links the decline of Bitcoin in the third quarter of last year not to inflation expectations, but rather to deflation. The market seems to have already accounted for this, but few people talked about it openly. According to his logic, Bitcoin can only truly recover when deflationary pressure weakens or reverses in the opposite direction.

Another point that Arthur Hayes emphasizes is that banks look at Bitcoin very differently than we think. They are mainly interested in retail trading around it, its popularity among ordinary investors. And there’s a risk here: if Bitcoin loses this retail appeal, if ordinary people stop paying attention to it, it could simply become irrelevant.

This is a rather sober view of the situation. It turns out that Bitcoin’s future depends not only on technology or adoption but also on macroeconomic scenarios that few can predict. Arthur Hayes hints that we should watch not just cryptocurrency news, but signals from the macroeconomic and political worlds.