I noticed an interesting analysis from a well-known crypto trader. Arthur Hayes looks at the historical patterns of the Fed's behavior during conflicts in the Middle East and sees hints of a potential Bitcoin rally.

His logic is as follows: every time the situation in the region escalates, the U.S. central bank usually reacts the same way — lowering interest rates or adopting a more dovish stance on monetary policy. This happened in 1990, and it repeated in 2001. Essentially, they print money to soften the blow to the economy.

Arthur Hayes suggests that if history repeats itself now and something serious happens with Iran, the Fed will once again start injecting liquidity into the system. And where does excess liquidity usually flow? Into risky assets, including crypto. Bitcoin could potentially see a significant rise in such a scenario.

Such forecasts are usually based on historical cycles, but the market can always surprise. Nevertheless, the logic connecting geopolitical tension, monetary policy, and the growth of crypto assets sounds quite reasonable. It's worth keeping this in mind when planning positions.