Focus on three key points: the schedule, oil prices, and BTC retracement structure. Pay less attention to emotions and more to price and volume.

Trump says Pakistan should mediate to extend the ceasefire request, but the conditions are very strict: Iran must first submit a unified plan before negotiations can continue. Iran, however, clearly refuses to participate in the April 22 talks, saying the U.S. violated the ten-point framework agreement in the first round of Islamabad negotiations. Adding to this is Trump’s earlier hardline warning that he “expects Iran to be bombed,” and the fact that Vance’s trip to Pakistan is still not confirmed—this ceasefire looks more like a “life extension,” with extremely high fragility, able to be torn apart by sudden incidents at any time.

Market reaction is also very typical: the moment the news broke, risk appetite rebounded, BTC broke through $76,000, and liquidations across the whole network totaled about $260 million, of which shorts were about $171 million—clearly an accelerated phase brought by a “news-driven rally + short covering.” At the same time, Brent crude oil briefly surged to $93.68 (+3.65%) before slipping slightly afterward, suggesting that while funds are trading the optimistic sentiment of “extending the ceasefire,” they are still buying insurance against the tail risk of “talks breaking down/reignition of conflict.”

Next, focus on three things: whether the talks can be restarted and provide an executable timetable; whether oil prices will strengthen again (which often means geopolitical risk is heating up); and after BTC breaks through, whether it can pull back and hold to take over—otherwise it is more likely to follow a “short squeeze ending → profit-taking → giving back gains” retracement path.#美伊二轮谈判进展 @Gate广场_Official