Recently, I've been observing those "coincidental transfers" on the blockchain. Honestly, many of them aren't coincidences; it's just that the paths haven't been unraveled. For example, A transfers to B, which looks like a personal payment, but the previous hop is a hot wallet from an exchange, and the next hop goes into a commonly used interaction contract, with a new address in between as a buffer. The purpose is clear: repositioning, diversification, or hiding from tracking. Another tactic is the same batch of funds circulating between different addresses to "wake up" occasionally. As long as you analyze the timing intervals, gas usage, and frequently accessed contracts together, you can basically piece together the behavior.

Lately, transaction fees have been extremely high, and in the group chat, people are arguing whether to reverse the trend or continue to squeeze the bubble. I think there's no need to rush to pick a side. No matter how high the fees go, if on-chain activity is just addresses performing, and there's no sign of retention and interaction frequency increasing, it just looks like squeezing toothpaste. Anyway, whenever I see "coincidence," my first reaction is to clarify the path first, then discuss emotions.