QCP analysis indicates that BTC rebounded from approximately $75k to around $78k, mainly influenced by Trump's extension of Iran ceasefire easing short-term risks, but overall it remains a relief rally rather than a trend reversal; current lockdowns persist, oil prices stay around $100, and Iran's stance remains unclear, so macro uncertainty still exists; Kevin Warsh's statement shows the Federal Reserve's policy is more data-dependent, and the market has not significantly lowered interest rate expectations; the crypto market's open interest has not decreased and funding rates are negative, indicating that shorts continue to build, with a short-term squeeze risk; derivatives market pricing shows consolidation rather than trend continuation, and institutional confidence in direction remains limited.