From preparing to bomb to an indefinite ceasefire, Trump's extreme reversal is not accepted by Iran

Author: Xiao Yanyan, Jintou Data

U.S. President Trump announced on Tuesday local time that he will extend the ceasefire agreement with Iran indefinitely, and the agreement was originally due to expire the next day. Meanwhile, plans for a new round of negotiations between the two countries have fallen apart.

On Tuesday, Trump posted on the “Truth Social” platform that he will continue the blockade of ships entering and leaving Iran through the Strait of Hormuz. He said that Pakistan, which had served as a mediator between the two sides, asked the U.S. to pause a new round of strikes, and he decided to extend the ceasefire until Iran comes up with a new proposal and negotiations are over, regardless of the outcome.

U.S. Vice President Vance had originally planned to travel to Pakistan to restart negotiations with Iran, but Tehran refused to send representatives, saying that the U.S. side had put forward what it described as unreasonable demands. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that the prospects for Iran’s participation in negotiations are bleak.

According to a White House official, Vance has indefinitely canceled his trip to Islamabad, Pakistan, because Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire. The official said that the visit originally scheduled for Tuesday has been canceled and has not yet been rescheduled. In the future, travel arrangements for meetings will be announced separately by the White House.

Trump’s statements that day stood in sharp contrast to his earlier tone when he accepted an interview with CNBC. At the time, he said that if Iran did not meet his conditions, “I expect there will be bombing,” and he said the military “is already poised and ready.” In a telephone interview on Monday, Trump had also said that if no agreement was reached, “I’m extremely unlikely to extend” the ceasefire.

Trump blamed the breakdown of negotiations on what he called Iran’s “seriously divided” leadership structure.

After Trump announced his decision, U.S. stock index futures recovered most of the day’s losses. With the news coming in thick and fast, oil prices briefly saw a high-amplitude n-type move:

Between about 3:35 and 4:10 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday, U.S. and Brent crude oil both went through an n-type move with a fluctuation of more than $4 over roughly half an hour. Oil prices surged after news broke that representatives from the U.S. and Iran canceled their trip to Pakistan, and briefly erased gains when Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire agreement. By the close, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil maintained about a 5% intraday gain.

Iran says it agrees to pause military combat, but the war is not over

According to CCTV, in the early hours of April 22 local time, Iran released a statement saying that Iran did not request an extension of the ceasefire. In response to Trump’s earlier statement about extending the ceasefire, an advisor to the speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament said on a social platform, “Trump’s proposed ceasefire extension is meaningless. Losers have no right to set conditions. A continuing blockade and bombing are no different; they must be met with military means. What’s more, Trump’s proposal to extend is clearly aimed at buying time to launch a surprise attack. Now is the time when Iran has the initiative.”

According to CCTV International, in response to Trump’s announcement of extending the ceasefire, a spokesperson for the Hatem Anbia Central Command of Iran’s armed forces warned the U.S. in the early hours of April 22, saying, “Iran’s armed forces have long been prepared to 100%, ready to open fire at any moment. If any aggression or action is carried out against Iran, Iran will immediately strike the designated targets with overwhelming force, giving the U.S. and Israel a harsher lesson than ever before.”

According to AXIOS, a regional source familiar with the mediation process and an Israeli source familiar with the discussions said that one of the reasons Trump extended the ceasefire is that the mediators from the U.S. and Pakistan have been waiting for Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader, Mujtaba, to respond to the latest proposal and issue clear instructions to the negotiation representatives. The Israeli source said that it is expected Mujtaba will provide a response on Wednesday local time.

Trump’s decision was mocked by Iranian media. Iran’s Press TV said that although Iran did not send representatives to negotiations in Islamabad, and although earlier reports said Trump would not extend the ceasefire, Trump still extended the ceasefire.

According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, continuing the maritime blockade means a continued state of hostility; as long as the blockade exists, Iran will at least not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If necessary, it will break the blockade by force.

Although extending the ceasefire may currently bring some reassurance to investors, the path to a lasting agreement to end the conflict remains full of uncertainty.

According to CCTV, in the early hours of April 22 local time, in response to Trump’s statement about extending the ceasefire, Iran’s state television said that Iran has become the winner of the battlefield. Control of the Strait of Hormuz is the extremely valuable bargaining chip Iran gained in this war. Iran has agreed to suspend military combat, but the war is still not over.

At the same time, Iran’s state television also pointed out that Iran must be wary of any implication that Iran must participate in negotiations; otherwise, the enemy will attack Iran’s statements. Even if the maritime blockade is lifted, Iran’s participation in negotiations must be conditional on not raising any issues that infringe on Iran’s independence and dignity; the top priority is Iran’s defense and missile capabilities, as well as its nuclear capabilities and technology.

In a statement, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Trump for extending the ceasefire, “so that ongoing diplomatic efforts can proceed according to their course.”

The U.S. and Iran make different choices on the blockade issue

The Wall Street Journal said that although Trump had previously warned that he did not want to extend the ceasefire, on Tuesday evening he did precisely that, again showing that he did not want to see fighting with Iran reignite.

Iranian officials continue to warn that if necessary, they are prepared to resume fighting, and they have not yet confirmed acceptance of the ceasefire extension. But in the past two weeks, Tehran has also chosen a diplomatic approach, even while at the same time demanding that the U.S. must lift its blockade of Iranian ports.

The Wall Street Journal said that as long as both sides avoid an escalation of the situation, in practice there are only two choices left.

Iran and the United States can allow their respective blockades to continue—the U.S. blockades Iranian ports, and Iran blockades the Strait of Hormuz. However, prolonged stalemate is harmful to both sides economically, and during the process of ships being intercepted and boarding inspections, unexpected incidents could quickly get out of control.

Another option is to find a low-profile, diplomatic, and possibly temporary solution to the U.S. blockade issue, and return to the negotiating table in the coming days.

“Since the ceasefire has now been extended indefinitely, the most likely thing to happen next is that Trump will ease the U.S. blockade, but will not openly announce the lifting of the blockade,” said Daniel Shapiro, who previously served as U.S. Ambassador to Israel and provided advice to the Biden administration during negotiations with Iran.

He said: “The Pakistanis will inform Iran of this point, and it may even prompt Iran to ease its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz a bit. This cooling of the situation may become a way to restart stalled negotiations.”

U.S. officials: The U.S. is expected to continue applying economic pressure on Iran

According to U.S. officials, even if Trump says that he will not resume military strikes for the time being, the U.S. is expected to continue applying economic pressure on Iran. This pressure campaign—referred to by government officials as “Operation Economic Fury”—includes sanctions, the blockade of Iranian ports, and the seizure of ships associated with Iran in global waters.

According to some estimates, even the maritime blockade alone could cause Iran losses of more than $400 million per day. The U.S. Central Command, responsible for U.S. military forces in the Middle East, said it has halted economic trade with Iran via sea routes, and that sea trade supports 90% of Iran’s economy. The Treasury Department also announced a series of new sanctions targeting Iran’s oil smuggling networks, proxy forces, and their weapons-delivery channels.

The White House hopes that by depriving Iran of its economic resources, the regime will be forced back to the negotiating table and that pressure will be applied to Iran’s leadership to make concessions on issues such as the nuclear program.

On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized in a post on X that the government is committed to applying “maximum pressure” to “systematically undermine Tehran’s ability to generate, transfer, and repatriate funds.”

He said that the maritime blockade will play a key role in this pressure campaign. He wrote: “In just a few days, the oil storage facilities on Qeshm Island will be filled, and Iran’s vulnerable oil wells will be shut down. Limiting Iran’s maritime trade directly hits the regime’s main lifeline of revenue.”