Recently, on-chain folks have been saying, "These transfers are just too coincidental," but I find it less mysterious. To be honest, many of these are just paths pieced together by bridges and liquidity fragments: The funds on chain are first sent to a hot wallet of a certain bridge, then the bridge splits them into several transactions moving through different L2 liquidity pools. When they reach the target chain, they are first received by an aggregator/market maker address before finally ending up at the address you think is the "same person." In between, there's an extra layer of rebates, gas refunds, and batch settlements, making it look like a scripted play.

Recently, someone also used ETF capital flows and U.S. stock market risk appetite to explain all the rises and falls. I also consider sentiment, but these "coincidences" on chain—drawing out the paths first—is much more reliable than looking for macro conspiracy theories. I'll go mark the hot wallets of those common bridges and trace the addresses in the same cluster later. That's all for now.