This morning, as usual, I first checked large on-chain transfers, and while I was at it, I took another look at that chart of stablecoin supply. Recently, a lot of people have been tying “ETF inflows/outflows” and the ups and downs of coin prices together especially tightly; and whenever the risk appetite in the US stock market shifts, they start spinning stories… To put it plainly, correlation really doesn’t equal causation—especially when the direction changes every day.

I already took a loss like this a while back: when I saw the stablecoin minting volume go up, I thought “off-exchange funds were about to come in,” so I hesitated for a second and impulsively chased a bit—then later I found out it was only a few big accounts switching channels and doing settlement, and the price didn’t move the way I’d imagined. After that, I set a dumb rule for myself: if I can’t make sense of it, I won’t move; wait until the signals become “most indicators can all explain the same thing,” and then we’ll talk. For now, that’s it—time to eat breakfast.