The Middle East conflict causes a global natural gas supply chain emergency

Ask AI · Could the Middle East conflict intensify global food security risks?

In front of the shelves at a Seoul supermarket, customers begin to ration the purchase of a trash bag.

In the back kitchen of Bangalore, chefs have already removed the gas stove and replaced it with an induction cooktop.

In a hospital in Mississippi, USA, non-urgent MRI appointment slips are quietly being pushed back by several weeks.

These three daily slices that seem unrelated are tightly choked by the same narrow waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz—this bay’s strait, only 33 kilometers at its narrowest point—has the world’s liquefied natural gas transport volume for nearly one-fifth stuck in it.

The Wall Street Journal reported on April 1 that throughout March, no LNG transport vessels departed from the Strait of Hormuz.

On March 11, an oil tanker sails in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz.

Amid the fighting, the Strait of Hormuz shuts down, plunging the world into a situation of “can’t make it from one breath to the next.”

The most direct impact is on Europe.

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven believes that because about 60% of Europe’s electricity prices are determined by natural gas, Europe is rendered even more vulnerable.

Data shows that since the outbreak of the conflict, EU natural gas prices have risen by about 70%. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said that in just a little over a month, this war has increased Europe’s fossil fuel import bills by about 14 billion euros.

And this may be only the beginning. Montel Analysis predicts that if Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports are paused for three months, natural gas prices could surge to 155 euros per megawatt-hour—three times the current price of around 50 euros.

And natural gas doesn’t just flow through stoves and heating pipelines; it also threads through a precise yet fragile global industrial chain.

When the gas valve is turned off, associated gases are the first to run into trouble.

Helium is a typical byproduct of natural gas processing. About one-third of the world’s helium comes from Qatar and must be shipped out through the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict, spot prices for some helium have at one point broken past 118 yuan per cubic meter, a rise of over 50%.

The domino effect at the medical end shows up quickly. MRI machines rely on liquid helium to cool superconducting magnets. A helium shortage is quietly being transformed into longer scan queues.

Nick Fitzke, director of MRI equipment at Mississippi State University, explains that only a few regions—including the Middle East—produce helium, and the impact of the supply bottleneck is already beginning to show.

Semiconductor production lines are also under pressure. In stages such as lithography and etching, helium is indispensable. If chip factories lack helium, capacity drops, and deliveries for smartphone, computer, and automotive chips will be delayed or prices will rise.

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and the extended supply chain for fertilizers, plastics, and more are experiencing synchronized shocks.

According to Huatai Futures data, the Persian Gulf region accounts for 30% of the world’s monthly LPG shipments. And about 90% of India’s LPG imports come from the Middle East.

In Bangalore, many restaurants have run into tight LPG stocks and have no choice but to switch to induction cooktops. This has sparked a wave of induction cooktop rush-buying locally, with Amazon’s induction cooktop sales soaring by more than 30 times.

More far-reaching effects are lurking in farmland and factories.

Ammonia is the core raw material for nitrogen fertilizers. Countries in the Persian Gulf account for 30% of global seaborne ammonia trade. About one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizers need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, Qatar’s world’s largest single urea unit has stopped production, and offshore urea prices in the Middle East have risen by more than 110 dollars compared to before the fighting.

With fertilizer shortages, grain output may fall—jeopardizing the staple food of hundreds of millions. The World Food Programme estimates that if the fighting continues into mid-year, the number of people facing severe food shortages could increase by 45 million, reaching a record 363 million.

The strain on plastic raw materials is also clearly visible.

If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it may disrupt global exports of nearly 1.2 million barrels per day of naphtha, directly tightening the supply of raw materials for plastic production.

DuPont’s CEO Jim Fethlin expects that as much as 50% of polyethylene supply will either shut down or be limited.

The impact is most pronounced in Asia. Data from ICIS, a global market information service, shows that in Asia, about 80% of the demand for seaborne naphtha imports is supplied by the Middle East.

Some areas of South Korea have already seen rationing for trash bags—standard trash bags are snapped up and sold out, supermarkets implement “one per person,” and convenience stores’ commonly used specifications are completely out of stock.

From the switching of stove flames in back kitchens in South Asia to the queue lists in hospitals in North America; from purchase limits on shopping bags in retail stores in East Asia to sowing cycles in global grain granaries. With natural gas supply cut off, what starts from a strait is spreading into the everyday bills of ordinary people worldwide.

No one knows when the next missile will arrive. But the world’s gas—if anything—will likely have to catch its breath for a while longer.

(“Three Rivers” Studio)