Prediction markets are about to transform into exchanges.

Kalshi wants to do crypto trading, and Polymarket plans to launch perpetual futures—Gold, Nvidia, BTC, Apple—where you can take leveraged long and short positions.

Their two companies’ core products were originally “prediction markets”: you bet on whether something will happen, and the odds are set by the market. Now, what they want to do is derivative trading in the traditional sense.

Why the shift?

Because the ceiling for prediction markets is too low.

Betting on “Can Trump win the election?” or “Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?”—these products generate traffic and buzz, but trading frequency is low and user retention is poor. Perpetual futures are different: 24-hour trading, high frequency, high leverage, and high trading fees.

This is the inevitable path to monetize traffic.

During the Iran war and US elections, Polymarket built up a large user base, and now it wants to convert that group into “trading users.” The logic is very clear—since you’re already betting on geopolitics on my platform, isn’t it natural to also do some BTC long/short trades?

But the problem is—

Kalshi is a compliant platform regulated by the US CFTC, and doing crypto trading requires additional licenses.

Polymarket was previously fined by the CFTC for providing services to US users; now that it wants to launch perpetual futures, what compliance path will it take?

To regulators, “prediction markets” and “derivatives exchanges” are two completely different species.

These companies’ expansion, in essence, is using the “prediction market” shell to do “exchange” business.

Will regulators buy it?

Before 2027, the answer might still be “turn a blind eye.”

But don’t forget—Polymarket’s $9.5 billion oil short position has already attracted the attention of the US Congress. #GatePreIPOs首发SpaceX