Recently, I've seen a bunch of screenshots saying "whales entering the market = surge," honestly I also like to look at large address activity, but before copying trades, I need to think: are they building a position, or hedging/ moving assets? When an address suddenly sends a large amount to an exchange, it’s not necessarily to dump, it could also be that they just opened a reverse position on the other side. The actions look the same... I misjudged this once a while ago, chased after buying a bit, but it turned out they were locking in risk, and I felt awkward.

And now everyone is trying to tie everything to ETF fund flows and US stock risk appetite, which feels pretty mysterious. They talk convincingly, but the quiet rebalancing on-chain is more likely to deceive. Anyway, I’m just testing the waters with 20 bucks for now, if I don’t get a second confirmation within 10 minutes, I’ll just give up. Better to miss out than to be led by a large transaction “show.”