In the past three months, Bitcoin buyers have returned to the breakeven point. Is the bottom signal still a market illusion?

After Bitcoin's price hit a bottom of approximately $63,000 on February 5th, it has rebounded over 20%, reaching around $76,000, slightly above the recent average cost basis of buyers.

According to the latest report by Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl, this price trend undoubtedly sends a positive signal to market participants.

Given the transparency features of the Bitcoin blockchain, it provides analysts with the ability to track the cost basis of each transaction.

In this context, "realized value" has also become a closely watched on-chain indicator by analysts because it accurately reflects the weighted average price at which tokens last moved on the chain.

Data shows that the realized price of Bitcoin traded over the past one to three months is about $74,000, indicating that recent buyers have already returned to the breakeven point.

If Bitcoin's price continues to rise in the coming days, more recent buyers will enter profit territory, which is often regarded as a key indicator of the first phase of a bull market.

From a technical perspective, even if the same holder transfers Bitcoin to a new address, causing slight differences between "realized value" and cost basis, this does not affect the overall validity of the analysis.

Overall, although BTC's current price is far from the October historical high, many recent buyers' holding prices have already returned to the breakeven point. This also suggests that Bitcoin may have formed a solid market bottom in the $65,000–$70,000 range.

This stable market bottom phenomenon not only provides investors with a crucial market reference but also to some extent reflects the overall health of the current Bitcoin market.

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