These past two days, people have been watching large on-chain transfers and exchanges’ hot and cold wallets—once they move, they shout, “Smart money is coming / it’s about to get dumped,” and it makes me want to laugh a little… Put simply, it’s often just rebalancing and consolidation. Don’t treat your wallets like a meteorological station radar.

Stablecoins are more like a weather report: if reserve transparency isn’t sufficient, even if nothing really goes wrong, it’s easy for them to get thrown off course by “bank-run psychology.” When everyone panics, they rush in together, and de-pegging is like a stampede.

Anyway, I no longer believe the saying “as long as it’s pegged, it’ll always be stable.” Instead, I look at disclosures, look at the redemption channels, and I keep some diversified exposure—so if I lose money, at least I know why.