Been watching the US dollar index get rejected hard at that 98.50 level. It's been trying to break through for weeks but keeps getting pushed back down. The nine-day EMA is basically acting as a ceiling right now, which is pretty textbook bearish setup in the short term.

What's interesting is that it's not just one thing holding it back. You've got the Euro staying strong (which makes sense since it's 57% of the index), some safe-haven flows going elsewhere, and the Fed basically sitting on the sidelines waiting for more data. The RSI is just hovering around 50, so there's no real conviction either way.

I'm watching two key scenarios: Either we get a proper breakout above 98.50 on decent volume and head toward 99.20, or we break the 97.80 support and test 97.00. Right now though, feels like we're stuck in that 97.80 to 98.50 range until something actually moves the needle - probably needs some big inflation or jobs data.

The US dollar strength has been capped by broader currency moves, especially the Euro. If you're trading this, the consolidation zone is your friend for setting stops. High-impact economic data will be the real catalyst here, not technical bounces. Staying patient and watching the levels.