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Honestly, I’ve found that a lot of people are staring at the decline of $RIVER , calculating, “It’s down 95%—time to buy the dip,” but that whole way of thinking is wrong.
What you don’t know is that the cost of those addresses that control the market is so low you wouldn’t dare to imagine it—only 0.02. Now at a price of 4.5, if they smash it down to 1, there’s still 50 times the profit. What you call oversold—over there, it’s still at a high level.
In the past 24 hours, they’ve already been breaking things up into small orders and moving 12 million tokens to the exchange, afraid of leaving traces of everywhere they’ve been dumping. On the contracts side, open interest has dropped by almost 1 million. It isn’t retail investors cutting losses—it’s the group that’s been pulling the market, and they’ve already bailed out long ago; they don’t even want to keep any leverage.
Now they’ll swing around between 4.3 and 4.9 for a couple of days to create a fake illusion of an “oversold rebound.” Then when the unlock happens the day after tomorrow, within 48 hours they’ll smash through 4.2, and within a week it will drop to below 3. In the end, it still has to step back down to the 1.6 breakout point. This round of call-giving is already over—don’t be the one to catch the falling knife.