April 22 Gold and Silver Analysis: Bears Have Never Been Absent, Just Late

Market Review
On April 22 local time, in response to Trump’s statement about extending the ceasefire period, Iran’s state television announced that Iran has become the victor on the battlefield. Controlling the Strait of Hormuz is a highly valuable chip Iran has gained in this war. Iran agreed to a pause in military combat, but the war is not over.

U.S. Vice President Vance initially planned to visit Pakistan to restart negotiations with Iran, but Tehran refused to send representatives, citing unreasonable demands from the U.S. side. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that the prospects for Iran’s participation in negotiations are currently bleak.

New Chairman Vosh stated: “Monetary policy remains independent, Trump never asked me to promise a rate cut, fighting inflation is the Federal Reserve’s primary task,” which is a hawkish stance.

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated upward intraday, with increased volatility during the New York session, ultimately closing up 0.35% at 98.38; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.299%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, closed at 3.779%.

Gold: After opening on Tuesday, gold slightly rallied, reaching a high of $4,833, perfectly filling the gap before continuing to decline. The Asian session saw a low of $4,774, followed by a weak rebound, but it remained suppressed below $4,800. During the European session, it touched a low of $4,772, rebounded weakly, still below $4,800. In the U.S. session, it surged to $4,798, then oscillated weakly. Later, influenced by speeches, a bearish waterfall occurred, with the lowest point at $4,680 in the early morning. It closed at $4,719, forming a medium-length bearish candle on the daily chart.

Today’s View

The medium-term correction in gold has not yet ended, and a second retest is about to begin. The previous bearish candle is basically confirmed, and the next step is to see where the pullback will go and what the structure of the correction will be.

This retracement level targets the adjustment of the $4,099–$4,891 wave, at least retracing to $4,590. The remaining levels are still $4,500 and $4,410, with a strong possibility of going down to $4,280 or even lower. This is the outlook for the coming period.

Returning to intraday trading, after gold touched $4,670 in the early morning, it rebounded above $4,700. The short-term correction has begun. Key resistance is at the $4,750–$4,760 zone, which is the area to consider shorting today. Support levels are at $4,700 and $4,680. Currently, no long positions are considered; the overall approach remains bearish. Volatility is increasing. More timely market analysis will be shared internally.

Silver: Silver has currently broken below $77.9. The next move is to follow gold’s rebound to the $77.9–$78.5 zone and look for short opportunities, with further retracement targets at $75–$73.

These views are for reference only! Trade at your own risk! Investment involves risks; please proceed cautiously.