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Just saw Pledditor drop something pretty interesting on Twitter the other day. This crypto sleuth is claiming that Bitcoin OGs actually did hit $1,000,000 this cycle, but here's the catch - retail didn't get the gains, the insiders did. And honestly, the mechanism they're describing is wild.
So here's how Pledditor breaks it down. These early Bitcoin holders with massive bags could launch a treasury company, hype it up on social media, get retail to buy common stock, and then pull off something clever. Once the market net asset value hits 10x, the founders exit their common shares while keeping preferred shares. Technically, they're selling Bitcoin at $1,000,000 even though BTC is trading at $100,000, all while still maintaining control through those preferred shares. The whole thing feels like they're printing money out of thin air.
What's wild is Pledditor points out the Bitcoin funding these schemes comes straight from the OGs themselves, not from the market. So there's zero price impact on actual Bitcoin trading. But retail gets told they're buying exposure to a certain amount of BTC per share when really, the founders control all the preferred stock and all the actual Bitcoin.
Pledditor isn't new to calling this stuff out. Back in 2023, they made waves by sharing deleted tweets from a major exchange CEO. They've been consistently critical of what they call Bitcoin treasury "grift," though they're definitely not a Bitcoin skeptic. They actually advocate hard for self-custody and DIY approaches.
The comparison Pledditor makes is to SPACs, and honestly it tracks. Special purpose acquisition companies are basically shell corporations that went through two boom-bust cycles and wrecked retail investors both times. Most SPACs delivered negative returns for years. Sound familiar? These treasury companies don't produce anything, just like SPACs. They're purely speculative vehicles.
Looking at the numbers, most treasuries have mNAV ratios under 3x, but a few have crossed that 10x threshold Pledditor mentioned. GameStop and Nakamoto are sitting above 10, while Metaplanet and Strive are hovering around 7.6 and 9.1. GameStop's inflated mNAV is partly because it had a huge market cap before allocating Bitcoin, so the BTC position is relatively small.
The thing is, if this scheme keeps working, we could see more companies following the same playbook. Pledditor's basically saying that early Bitcoin holders found a legal way to exit at valuations that make no sense for the broader market. Whether that's genius or exploitation probably depends on which side of the trade you're on. Time will tell if regulators or the market itself puts a stop to it.