CITIC Futures: Frequent geopolitical disturbances, crude oil fluctuating widely at high levels

The US-Iran ceasefire is expected to be extended again, but negotiations are still facing setbacks. The continued low traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to disprove, and oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels. Looking ahead, due to sustained low supply in the Middle East, global crude oil and refined product inventories have significantly declined. Even if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is substantially eased, the recovery of Middle Eastern oil production may be slightly delayed. Under low inventory conditions for refined products, refinery procurement demand will also clearly increase year-on-year. The prices of near-month futures are unlikely to fall back to pre-conflict levels, and the geopolitical outlook is expected to fluctuate at high levels during the uncertain phase. (CITIC Futures)