Just saw the latest GDP numbers for Q4 2025 and honestly, the picture is pretty rough. Growth came in at just 0.7 percent when economists were expecting something closer to 1.4 or 1.5 percent. That's a huge miss, and it's a massive drop from the 4.4 percent we saw in the previous quarter.

So for Trump's first year back in office, the overall GDP growth landed at 2.1 percent. To put that in perspective, Biden's final year saw 2.8 percent growth. Not exactly the momentum people were hoping for.

Heather Long, one of the economists breaking this down, pointed out the real issue: consumer spending. It slowed to just 2 percent in Q4, down from 3.5 percent in Q3. That's a pretty sharp deceleration. And a lot of that came from the government shutdown, which actually cut 1.16 percent right off the GDP number. When the feds aren't spending, the whole economy feels it.

Then you've got Trump's tariffs creating headwinds without really delivering on the import reduction side. Meanwhile, job growth stayed weak, which meant people were spending less across the board. It all adds up to a concerning picture.

Inflation wasn't helping either. Core inflation climbed 0.4 percent in January, putting the annual rate at 3.1 percent. Financial analyst Sonu Varghese flagged something important: the inflation data was already looking shaky before the Middle East tensions ramped up. Now with the energy shock hitting, he's expecting prices to move higher.

Elizabeth Renter, another economist tracking this, made a solid point about timing. This is January data, and a lot has shifted in recent weeks. A softer jobs report in February combined with inflation still running hot before the Iran situation started suggested we might be heading into some fragile territory.

The real question now is what happens next. Two big things are coming that could reshape the Q1 2026 numbers: the Supreme Court's tariff decision and the fallout from the Middle East crisis. Either way, the economy's momentum looks like it's stalling, and that's worth paying attention to.