Analysis: The "CLARITY Act" still has a chance of passing, but it must be approved by the full Senate in a final vote in July.

BlockBeats News, April 22 — According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which the crypto industry in the U.S. has high hopes for, is now essentially unlikely to advance in April. However, lobbyists tracking the bill’s progress and an aide to a senator stated that the Senate committee is expected to hold a hearing at some point in May. As long as the bill can be voted on by the full Senate in July, this key market structure legislation still has a “survival” chance.

The Senate aide said that to allow Republican Senator Thom Tillis to complete discussions with the banking industry on stablecoin yield issues, the bill might be delayed by a few more weeks, but it has not crossed an irreversible point. Negotiations over the DeFi protection provisions have largely been finalized. The main obstacle for the crypto industry is opposition from the banking sector regarding stablecoin rewards — banking lobbyists worry that stablecoin reward mechanisms could resemble deposit yields, threatening their business models.

After August, the Senate will enter midterm election mode, with only about twelve working weeks remaining before the election. During this period, they also need to handle Homeland Security Department funding, Iran war issues, voter ID legislation, and Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair. If the bill is approved by the Senate Banking Committee, it will need to be merged with the version from the Senate Agriculture Committee, then pass the House again, and finally be signed by Trump. Crypto investment firm Galaxy will release a research report this week, estimating that the probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 is about fifty-fifty, or even lower.