The aftermath of the Middle East war, sub-Saharan Africa faces an economic crisis

The Middle East War has led to a surge in energy and fertilizer prices, and the economies of the least developed countries— including sub-Saharan Africa—may suffer even greater shocks than other regions of the world.

In a report on regional economic outlook published on the 22nd for sub-Saharan Africa, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that this year the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for 45 countries in the region will reach 4.3%. This is 0.2 percentage points lower than last year’s expected growth rate of 4.5%. The IMF noted that the impact of the Middle East War has caused a sharp rise in the prices of major raw materials, with particularly significant increases in fuel and fertilizer prices. The issue is that, after experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic, the region is already burdened with socio-economic wounds such as worsening poverty and deteriorating food insecurity. On top of that, with reduced foreign aid and rising food prices, the more vulnerable a country is, the weaker its structural capacity to absorb shocks.

The IMF is especially concerned about the macroeconomic environment, which is prone to external variables. As prices rise, countries with higher import dependence need more foreign exchange to import the same quantity of crude oil and fertilizers. Countries with limited fiscal space also face constraints in adopting response measures such as expanding subsidies or providing emergency import support. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at the IMF Spring Meetings held in Washington, D.C., in the U.S., on the 17th that even if the Middle East crisis ends immediately, it could still leave substantial aftereffects on the global economy. She pointed out that if the situation further worsens, about 12 countries may need additional support, many of them in Africa. She also diagnosed that the poorer a country is, the higher its import dependence and the narrower its fiscal space are, the more it is exposed to inflation shocks.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has also issued a similar warning. In its recently released report titled “Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook 2026,” the institution forecast that if the war between the United States and Iran lasts more than three months, Africa’s real GDP growth rate this year will be 4.3%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than last year. A report by the British newspaper Financial Times (FT) on the 20th also cited the IMF officials’ warning: even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, the world’s poorest countries have already entered a state of economic and fiscal distress that is difficult to avoid. Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), said that with energy prices rising, fertilizer prices rising, and the U.S. dollar strengthening all occurring at the same time, more of the burden is being shifted onto developing countries rather than high-income countries.

The on-the-ground impact is already appearing. According to the FT, fuel shortages are spreading from Ethiopia in East Africa to Sierra Leone in West Africa. In some countries, the power generation and transportation sectors are the first to be hit; rising fertilizer prices raise agricultural production costs, ultimately leading to higher food prices. IMF Deputy Director of the Africa Department, Mounfour Mraichala, also explained in a recent interview that the increase in crude oil and fertilizer prices has raised the total import bill for African countries, adding an extra burden to their budgets. He added that, in particular, countries that rely on imported crude oil—especially those with weak or unstable income bases—are more vulnerable.

Ultimately, this shock may go beyond merely higher oil prices and evolve into a composite crisis in which prices, fiscal conditions, food security, and growth rates are interconnected. This is also why the IMF recommends that, in the short term, policy focus on mitigating shocks, while in the medium term, it should focus on strengthening resilience. This trend is likely to greatly affect the economic conditions and living standards of Africa’s least developed countries in the future, depending on how quickly the situation in the Middle East stabilizes and to what extent international support can be sustained.