BTC has been rejected three consecutive times at the $76,000 level, with the most recent attempt on April 14th briefly touching that level before falling back to around $74,000. The current Bitcoin price trend seems to be stuck, but I recently noticed an interesting signal.

The funding rate for perpetual contracts on a major exchange has remained negative for 46 consecutive days, while open interest continues to increase. This indicates that shorts are continuously adding positions, but the price has not further declined. This combination usually signals a potential rebound in history. K33 Research's analysis points out that such situations have only occurred during March to May 2020 (63 days) and June to August 2021 (49 days), both of which were followed by significant upward movements.

Honestly, the relationship between Bitcoin's price and USD right now is just waiting for a trigger point. There is obvious selling pressure above $76,000, while $68,000 is a structural support level. Recent events like the FOMC meeting and the expiration of the Iran ceasefire agreement could serve as catalysts, potentially triggering short covering. Without these catalysts, the market may continue to consolidate. From the data, the longer the short positions are squeezed, the stronger the eventual rebound could be, but that depends on waiting for that ignition point.