US-Iran Negotiations Shift Focus to Uranium Enrichment Limits, Strait of Hormuz Becomes Iran's 'Ultimate Weapon'

On April 21, US-Iran negotiations may soon resume in Islamabad, with various signs indicating that Washington seems willing to ‘tacitly accept’ Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz in order to preserve the global economic landscape. A warning from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has ignited concerns among Gulf nations: reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be the greatest achievement possible from US-Iran talks, which falls far short of the broader de-escalation that Gulf countries prioritize. Officials and analysts expect that the upcoming round of negotiations in Islamabad will focus not on Iran’s missiles or regional proxies, but increasingly on limiting uranium enrichment activities and how to manage Iran’s control over oil transportation routes through the Strait of Hormuz. This strategy of ‘management’ instead of ‘disruption’ could further tighten Iran’s grip on Middle Eastern energy supplies. While this move prioritizes global economic stability, it excludes countries most vulnerable to energy and security shocks from the formal decision-making circle. Currently, the US and Iran remain deadlocked on the issue of uranium enrichment, with Iran rejecting the ‘zero enrichment’ demand. Sources from Gulf nations indicate that ‘ultimately, the Strait of Hormuz will become the final red line; this was not an issue before, but now it is.’ In this conflict, Iran’s threat to Gulf shipping has broken the long-standing taboo on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, making the disruption of shipping a tangible bargaining chip at the negotiation table.